Ver Angola


Angola among the four most vulnerable countries to oil slump, warns Moody's

Moody's financial ratings agency put Angola among the countries most vulnerable to the oil slump this Tuesday, along with Oman, Bahrain and Iraq, warning of the limited capacity to adjust to an external shock.


"Vulnerability to falling oil prices will create divergence in credit quality," analysts warn in a note about the impact of the oil slump on oil-exporting countries.

In the report, sent to customers and accessed by Lusa, Moody's analysts write that "low oil prices are negative from a credit perspective for exporting countries, particularly Oman, Bahrain, Iraq and Angola, where the ability to adjust to a deep, though temporary, shock is limited.

Most of these producers, they add, "have high external vulnerabilities to low prices and will face higher liquidity risks".

In the note, Moody's noted that the price of oil had fallen 60 percent in recent weeks, and this Tuesday was trading at 25 dollars, well below the 55 dollars per barrel predicted in Angola's General State Budget for this year.

"We now assume that the price of oil will be between 40 and 45 dollars per barrel this year and between 50 and 55 in 2021, which is around 30 percent and 15 percent lower than our previous forecast," Moody's wrote.

For countries with flexible exchange rates, such as Angola, "a depreciation of the currency can mitigate the shock in revenues when they are converted into local currency, but this would happen at the expense of an increase in the debt to GDP ratio due to the valuation effect," the rating agency warns.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that by the end of last year Angola had already surpassed the 100 percent of GDP barrier in terms of public debt, also due to a devaluation of the kwanza at the end of last year and again in recent weeks.

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