"Many oil exploration zones are no longer receiving employees and this has meant that many oil fields are currently shutting down", said Patrício Quingongo, executive director of the online platform Petroangola, which specializes in the oil market.
Angola, where production is mainly supported by foreign companies, has a large number of foreign workers assigned to this activity.
Currently, Luanda prohibits the entry of non-resident foreign nationals from China, Iran, Italy and South Korea, where there is a high number of infected and indigenous cases.
“(…) If the virus continues to spread and there is no cure in the near future, Angolan production could be greatly affected by the lack of foreign personnel,” said the expert, stressing that “the oil industry is globalized”.
"If we have restrictions on workers who come from the United States and after South Africa, which also supports national activity, then the impact would be even greater", said Patrício Quingongo.
The executive director, on the other hand, considered that the lack of understanding between Russia and Saudi Arabia regarding the cuts in oil production will have a solution soon.
"This is a controlled situation as opposed to the coronavirus problem", he declared, referring that the two countries are condemned to understand each other, because both economies will not be able to bear low prices for long.
As for the evolution of the price of oil, the expert said that it was “very difficult to make a forecast”, because the market is at a “very high level of uncertainty” due to concerns about the Covid-19 epidemic.
For the official, the worst scenario for Angola will be "to force the revision of the General State Budget (OGE)", which he considers "still premature", since the average price of the barrel since the beginning of the year is 57 dollars, still above what was foreseen in the OGE (55 dollars).
"It is technically premature to carry out a review of the OGE, as there is no basis for sustaining it", he defended.
Patrício Quingongo stressed that, at this point, the executive should prepare macroeconomic projections that take into account a lower price of a barrel of oil, “look at expenses that can be cut” and for an eventual renegotiation of foreign debt.
