"The lowest income countries and the economies most focused on agriculture will be most strongly affected," analysts wrote in a note on the impact of Covid-19, in which they estimate a recession of 3.5 percent for Angola and 2.5 percent for South Africa.
"Oil exporters, of course, are going to suffer; while Nigeria may be able to achieve a small growth of 1 percent, we expect Angola to see its GDP drop significantly, and despite strong political support from the central bank, South Africa's economy, as the most developed economy, is expected to drop by 2.5 percent this year," the analysts wrote in a note sent to investors.
In the note, analysts write that Africa has particularities, such as being a less urbanised continent than the others, and therefore less likely to be widespread contagion.
"One group of consumers that will change their behaviour, unlike many African farmers who will continue their normal lives, is the group of foreign tourists, whose spending is expected to collapse in the second quarter, so the disruption will be greater in African countries that are comparatively richer or dependent on tourism revenues," conclude the analysts.
