"Since October the kwanza has depreciated against the dollar, and the evolution in 2023 will depend on oil revenues and the international situation, but the tendency will be for a certain depreciation, I would say an average exchange rate depreciation of between 5 to 10 percent ", said Tiago Dionísio in statements to the Lusa agency.
Anticipating the evolution of the Angolan currency this year, the chief economist at Eaglestone said that the Government expects the kwanza to maintain its current value, above 500 kwanzas per dollar: "The Government has set a target to have a debt ratio of 60 percent in the long term, and for that it is necessary to maintain fiscal consolidation and that implies a primary deficit of the non-oil sector of 5 percent of GDP", he explained.
"As the primary deficit of the non-oil sector is above this value, this means that the Government is counting on a favorable evolution of the kwanza, that is, that there will not be a significant devaluation that affects this ratio", he pointed out.
According to data from the National Bank of Angola, the kwanza appreciated by around 10 percent, on average, in 2022, despite the fall in the last quarter: in early January, the exchange rate between the kwanza and the dollar it was at 554.9, and at the beginning of this month the rate had improved to 503.6 kwanzas per dollar.
Last year's appreciation follows the trend of 2021 and contradicts previous years, in which the kwanza lost value due to the exchange rate flexibility introduced by the National Bank of Angola in 2018, when it ceased to artificially control the exchange rate, allowing an approximation with the real value of the national currency.
