The National Bank of Angola (BNA) estimated on Tuesday that the country's economic growth will reach 4 percent at the end of the year, while inflation is expected to continue to fall, remaining at around 27 percent.
For economist Carlos Rosado de Carvalho, the BNA was pessimistic in its forecast about 2024 inflation, mainly because it initially pointed to annual inflation of close to 24 percent until December.
"In relation to inflation, they [the BNA] are more pessimistic than they were, [as] they started forecasting 24 percent and now they increase the forecast to 27 percent, these are forecasts that we cannot understand very well what they are [made]", the economist told Lusa.
Rosado de Carvalho, who challenges the BNA to make regular forecasts about the national economy, said, on the other hand, that, in relation to projections about economic growth, which should reach 4 percent, the central bank was "quite optimistic", compared to forecasts from the Government (3.3 percent) and international organizations.
This economic growth forecast for Angola (4 percent) exceeds the World Bank's forecasts (3.2 percent) and, above all, is more than what the International Monetary Fund predicts (2.4 percent), said the economist , questioning the BNA's calculations.
"So, I don't know where the BNA got this projection and, on top of that, this is the first time that the BNA has talked about growth forecasts, normally they never do. I think they need to explain better where it comes from where these 4 percent come from", concluded the university professor.
According to economist Alberto Vunge, the BNA's expectation for accumulated inflation for 2024, now estimated at 27 percent, is far from the target defined at the beginning of the year, pointing to the removal of fuel subsidies, the increase in transport prices and telecommunications as influencing factors.
"But, there is another important factor here which is the irregularity in the supply of consumer goods, it was a mark that we actually had this year, we all remember that there were months this year in which the prices of consumer goods worsened by drastically," said the economist.
Speaking to Lusa, Alberto Vunge also considered that the supply of currency during the year was another factor that weighed in determining prices during 2024, highlighting, however, that these "factors – in light of the statement from the BNA's Monetary Policy Committee – are currently controlled".
"These are factors that are controlled, especially when it comes to the supply of consumer goods", he concluded.
The governor of the BNA, Manuel Tiago Dias, estimated the country's economic growth at around 4 percent "taking into account, on the one hand, the dynamics of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and, on the other hand, the information resulting from monitoring of national economic activity".
